Saturday, May 29, 2004

Beyond the Non-Bush

It is high time that Democrats address Republicans' complaint that John Kerry is nothing but the antithesis of George Bush. I was reminded of this while sitting outside last week, munching on a scrumptious Cuban sandwhich, when a walking stereotype of a Republican engaged me in a conversation about the war in Iraq.

Predictably, we spent about 15 minutes largely talking past each other, but there was something that the man said, that made me reflect on my own opinions. When talking about Kerry, the man unhashed the typical pre-canned Limbaugh response of, "Well, Kerry says one thing one time, and something else the next time." I happen to think that this is a simplistic analysis and that "staying the course" is largely a response relegated to those too idealistic to change their mind even in the face of contradicting information. What the man's comment made me realize, though, is that I have no earthly idea what we should do in Iraq now. The whole thing is such a mess that I have a hard time comprehending a way through the maze.

My immediate response to the man at the picnic table was that Kerry certainly had a better chance of internationalizing the effort than did Bush. I really believe that. I've never seen the world so angry at an American administration. However, even if Kerry gets elected, what will happen? Ideally, what would I like to see from a candidate on the Iraq issue? Here is the answer that I eventually came up with: pragmatism.

Pragmatism is not inspiring, but we're passed the point of inspiration. We're in hang on mode now. What I want is a candidate who will recognize that there are no questions in the field of international affairs for which we have an answer. There is no dominant paradigm. Instead, our best option is to weigh the choices and choose correctly between bad and worse. If Kerry's straddle-the-fence model of campaigning is indeed designed to keep his options open and is not merely a way of swaying with the ebb and flow of public opinion, then I applaud it. I have certainly seen no evidence that Bush is capable of ditching his ideology when it is clearly not working. The man has sounded like a broken record for the last two and a half years. Another 4 years of looped television addresses is not what we need. This is where John Kerry can distinguish himself. He can be the quiet voice of reason to Bush's stalwart, "I won't change my mind no matter what" 5-year-old in a temper tantrum style of governing. I'd vote for that. Now all Kerry has to do is get that message out.

Friday, May 21, 2004


Even the Vandals Agree!!!

Who would have thought?

Yesterday, we had yet another example of the simplistic, playground rules by which the Bush administration operates. Here's out it plays out: Ahmed Chalabi leaves Iraq. He then gets a PhD in math from the University of Chicago. After going to Jordan to establish the Petro bank, Chalabi proceeds to embezzle $300 million from the bank, rocking the Jordanian economy. Chalabi flees Jordan. In 1992 Chalabi founds the Iraqi National Congress (INC) in Vienna. This group plans to affect regime change in Iraq. They begin feeding intel to the Bush administration shortly after the election. [see Seymour Hersh's article "The Stovepipe" for an in-depth look at how intel was handled by the INC and the Bush administration: http://www.newyorker.com/printable/?fact/031027fa_fact] The INC produced several witnesses who told stories of WMD manufacturing efforts in Iraq. None of these stories could ever be confirmed by existing intel. The INC is, at this point, receiving extensive financial backing from U.S. taxpayers. To put this into perspective, the US government is now funding an organization led by a known embezzler. This organization is pressured to produce intel that fits in with that organization's express goal of overthrowing Saddam. Conflicts of interest are apparently easier to find than WMD. By the way, Chalabi is personally getting paid $335,000 dollars a month at this point by the US taxpayers.

Fast-forward a little over one year:

The situation in Iraq is deteriorating rapidly. There are no WMD. Chalabi's home in Iraq is raided by US forces. Claims by the US that this raid came at the orders of the Iraqi security forces don't seem to make much sense considering that Chalabi holds a seat on the Iraqi Governing Council (thanks to Uncle Sam...I mean Bush). So essentially the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) under Bremer are pissed off at this guy for not giving good info and being a general pain in the rear. Who could have imagined that a bank embezzler wouldn't be as honest and forthcoming as possible? Instead of realizing that we were playing ball with a shady character and accepting this, the CPA seems to have reverted to a tit-for-tat blame game in which they will make Chalabi the scape-goat for our problems in Iraq. You lie about WMD, I'll trash your house. Typical of the Bush administration's approach to things. It is NEVER THEIR FAULT. If I put my head in a tiger's mouth, I don't blame the tiger when it bites down. The Bush administration, however, seems to think that it is either in the mafia or in the schoolyard where getting back at the guy who did you wrong is more important then moving forward and doing the right thing.

Tuesday, May 18, 2004

pre - war media sickness

This is a piece that I wrote in June of 2003. While I admit that the media (including CNN) has grown a little more backbone since I wrote it, I hold that they did so only because the Bush administration committed grievous blunders and bad assessments that nobody could validly ignore. I do not believe, however, that the fundamental danger that I outline here is anywhere near gone. The danger of ratings allowing emotionally overwrought people to select their own news content is still I serious danger to not only the United States, but also the rest of the world. In fact, I believe that what we are now seeing in Iraq is partly a result of the ratings loop creating support for Bush's policies that were higher than they should have been and making our government resemble, for a time, a single-party state. Additionally, I should point out that my estimation of the journalistic integrity existing at FOX News was highly optimistic. By using his team of Harvard researchers to do some top-notch research, Al Franken has shown in what lack of factual depth FOX news anchors are content to wallow.


The Ratings Race: To the Top or Bottom?

Sitting in a workshop on writing promotions and teases, I look up to see that the lecturer has flashed up his newest example of an excellent tease. On the screen is Bill Hemmer, a prominent anchor from CNN Domestic standing in the Kuwaiti desert, tank artillery shell in hand, next to some U.S. servicemen. “When we come back, they’re going to show you one of these getting shot off.” The audience erupts into delighted laughter and applause. I glance around to see if everybody approves. A young writer/producer from CNN International is raising her hand. “Does anybody think that that was a little sensationalistic?” The lecturer responds,“Well, don’t you think that it would be cool to be able to see one of those tank shells shot off?”

The vast majority of the people in the room that day were promotions writers. Their job is to energize the audience, make them think that something interesting and exciting (maybe even fun) is coming up. The writer/producer from CNN International, on the other hand, has as a large part of her job description to report the news as objectively and correctly as possible. This is not to put blame for bad journalism on promotions writers. That tease not only aired, but the producer of that particular show let it air. The problem with the tease was not that it failed to galvanize its viewers. It no doubt did. The horrific reality is that war, the most sober of human institutions, was allowed to be turned on its head and presented as a Hollywood visual spectacle. The writer/producer saw, as perhaps none of her colleagues did, that to conflate this most serious of issues with entertainment was to tacitly justify the U.S. position. This justification would not be based on fact, but instead on a visceral, emotional response. I do not intend to condemn the United States on its position with regards to Iraq. What I intend to condemn is the part that the American media played in creating the incendiary fervor in support of that position that existed among much of the American citizenry.

The premise of the argument is that in the presence of ratings, there exists a feedback loop between producers of broadcast media and their audience. Of course it must be that news producers recognize that the audience is influencing their programming in the form of ratings. But there is a question that is too seldom asked: On what basis are these viewers making their channel selection? If, as is often assumed, the viewer is choosing their channel based on factual integrity and completeness and objectivity of reporting, then there is little to fear from our media. If, however, people do not truly desire an academic and factual experience, if they desire instead an emotional experience or worse, one designed to justify their emotional responses, then the world has much to fear from the media of the world’s first hyperpower. If we are to answer the question of how people are choosing their preferred news station, we have only to look at the rise of part of Rupert Murdoch’s media empire, Fox News.

Fox News has become the omnipresent voice of conservative media in America. It now consistently beats CNN in the ratings war, billing itself as a fair and balanced, cut to the chase, objective news source. We have only to glance at their list of embedded war correspondents to see how the reality matches up to these claims. The day that Oliver North qualifies as an objective journalist will be the day that Webster closes down the dictionary shop. And master cartographer though he may be, Geraldo has never topped the list of entries in my mind’s Who’s Who of International News Experts. This is not to insinuate that Fox purposely reports incorrect information to its constituents. Most likely they do not. What Fox does is to present facts in a sensational and slanted format to a populace who wants just that. Not only do they want this sensationalism, they also want (need?) to be continually told that this drastically one-sided programming is objective (à la “fair and balanced”).

What is such a positive feedback loop of emotion-driven ratings and visceral programming capable of producing? The answer depends on what sort of mindset the American citizen holds. I hold that in times of crisis, nationalism is the main factor in determining the American mindset. And we must forthwith abandon the long-held self-delusion that patriotism is anything other than the dreaded nationalism, the same ism that drove a pre-World War I Europe into political party monopolies and rapid militarization. If United States foreign policy has been deemed outright imperialistic by many current and former allies, then the domestic political situation fits the mold perfectly. Rhetoric from President Bush and his cabinet sets issues not in the realm of political discussion, but along lines of “good” and “evil.” These are not terms to encourage discussion, but terms to close divisions and unite. Bush’s Patriot Bill sailed through a Congress that it would have had up in arms 30 or even 4 years ago. Prior to the Iraqi conflict, the United States handily dispensed with allies to whom we had been careful to pay lip service as recently as the humanitarian efforts in Kosovo. The U.S. Congress saw none of the heated batter that Tony Blair faced in the British Parliament. Instead, the United States saw Democrats and Republicans doing their best to look identical in their fervent attempt to capitalize on the fear and indignation of a post 9/11 American populace.

The game has not been played to its end. While Fox is perhaps the most vociferous of the hyper-emotional news broadcasts, it is not alone. In its bid to compete with FOX, CNN has changed a sufficient amount for CNN International to begin to break ranks. CNN International is not at the mercy of ratings as it is impossible to calculate worldwide viewer level. It shows. I have seen first-hand the refusals of CNN International producers to run the flag-waving packages of many correspondents that are regularly run on CNN Domestic. There is constant effort at CNN International not to carry Domestic’s coverage so as to avoid overly patriotic or pro-U.S. fonts. Anchors and writers at CNN International have been cautioned to avoid the terms “smart bomb” and “collateral damage” in their broadcasts preferring to say “civilian casualties” in recognition of the fact that even if a bomb has a GPS guidance system capable of precise targeting, this says nothing in regards to the blast radius after it hits. As I heard a top CNN International executive say, “We won’t have any American jingoisms on our programming.” But CNN Domestic continues to spout such jingoisms. They have not recognized that conflation of facts (even ones verified by two sources) with rhetoric, noise, and visual spectacle can influence viewers not just in their choice of programming, but in their political views as well. And the ratings show it: viewers want to be influenced.

There is a common wisdom about positive feedback loops. They cannot last. Situations cannot indefinitely change in the same direction. American broadcast media feeds into what the public wants. Our public in turn seems ready to endorse any action purported to involve U.S. security interests, no questions asked. The wisdom of current U.S. foreign policy is not my concern. My concern is that there was no broad discussion in deciding what that policy would be. If American broadcast media further embraces propaganda, it will not matter in the end whether that propaganda was created by a totalitarian state or whether we created it ourselves. I am scared of where we will be by the time the loop collapses.

Sunday, May 16, 2004

Modest Goals

Ok, my modest goal of the day is to outline the problems underlying current US foreign policy. What I've been thinking for some time is that the problem runs deeper than merely the clumsy and heavy-handed diplomacy of the Bush administration. What is at issue here is the validity of the democratic peace theory (DPT). DPT states that democracies do not enter into conflict with each other. The theory focuses largely on institutional barriers (the difficulty of going to war), the influence of the media in democracies, and the increased likelihood of democracies to share interconnecting ties with each other. Both the Democratic and Republican Parties have adopted this theory wholesale. The theory, however, is in its intellectual infancy. It is not at all nuanced. It does not take into account economics as Amy Chua so handily points out in her book, World on Fire. Even, however, if DPT turns out to have some value after more factors are taken into account, this will still not speak to the methodology by which it could be used as foreign policy tool. It is conceivable, as Prince Abdullah of Jordan pointed out yesterday, that the only path to a true democracy starts from within a country. Snyder and Mansfield have written a paper pointing out that any change in government, whether towards democracy or an authoritarian regime is very likely to result in conflict. In my mind, the fundamental problem with forceable, military-led regime change is that it creates a psychological atmosphere wherein the occupying force can do NOTHING wrong if they are to maintain legitimacy. The difficulty of the situation is compounded by the fact that war, the most gruesome of human institutions, is the action most likely to ruin the image of any party involved. I would be hard-pressed to find a conflict in which both sides have not committed atrocities. The differences between, for instance, World War II (another war of atrocities) and the current conflict in Iraq are two-fold. First, the flow of information is larger and faster than it has ever been. Soldiers have always taken pictures during combat, but now they inevitably get leaked to the whole world. People in every country can view our mess-ups with a few key strokes. Second, this was a war of choice. We DID NOT have to go to war in Iraq, all pleas of WMD and spreading freedom aside. Saddam is not a nice or pleasant man. This, however, is not a good motivation for regime change. We were never attacked by Iraq. Saddam's supposed ties to terrorists were limited to a training camp in northern Iraq - an area Saddam didn't even control. I am not so cynical to think that this war was ALL about oil, though I know that we would never have attacked an identical regime in Sub-Saharan Africa. This war then, was about the DPT. The Bush administration (and the Clinton administration before them) believed that democracy must be spread, if necessary by force. Clinton, on the other hand, chose countries in which to spread democracy where the citizens would generally be happy about any sort of outside intervention. Iraq was no such country. Iraq is a land drawn arbitrarily on a map by the British. As such, it has virtually no internal unity. It was held together by an iron fist. Despite warnings prior to conflict, the Bush administration did not believe dire predictions that Iraq would fractionalize, that people in the Middle East are proud and would not take well to occupation. Not everybody has such a short perspective on history as Americans. Iraqis remember well that not long ago they were colonized by white Westerners. They didn't like it then, and they don't like it now. Iraq could well end up a democracy with increased freedoms, but I suspect that if it happens, it will be at the hand of far-seeing Iraqis who will also have little love for Americans whose bombs they have seen kill many and whose soldiers have wrongfully imprisoned and tortured their people.

ways to waste time at a computer

Soooo, my life right now (and I mean this very moment) basically consists of sitting in front of a computer at the CNN center waiting for something horrible to happen. Then, some fatcats at Time Warner can sell commercials that people watch in between horrible news and make some money off of it. Kind of morbid?....Indeed. However, there is a silver lining--We get the news out. Because of what we and others do, everybody, everywhere knows what goes on in the world. Though this has its own downsides, I happen to think that access to information is an overall good thing. Today, analysis seems to focus on how much American soft power has been damaged in the Mideast by the Abu Ghraib prison scandal. Every now and then I flip over to FOX News so I can be entertained by the latest batch of anti-liberal vitriol.